pátek 26. září 2008

Bude se finanční sektor v USA zmenšovat?


Ve světle pádů a slučování bank by otázka měla spíše znít: O kolik se finanční sektor zmenší? Matěj Šuster v komentářích upozornil na článek Arnolda Klinga, který mimo jiné porovnává stav finančního sektoru v průběhu Velké deprese a nyní:

In the 1930's, the U.S. financial sector was underdeveloped, so that the collapse of banks may have seriously impaired the ability of the economy to perform. (I say "may" because this issue is still debated. I myself am persuaded that the collapse of banks destroyed borrower-creditor relationships and thus spilled over into the real economy. What persuaded me was the research of an academic economist named Ben Bernanke.)

Today, the U.S. financial sector is overdeveloped. Ken Rogoff noted "financial firms accounted for roughly one-third of American corporate profits in 2006." Our economy is devoting too many resources to finance, and the retrenchment that is now taking place, while painful for individuals, is probably better for the overall balance of the economy.

In short, in the 1930's the failure of banks very probably was a bad thing. Today, the consolidation of the financial sector is probably a good thing, or at least a necessary adjustment.

O kolik levnější budou za pět let komerční nájmy na dolním Manhattanu?

4 komentáře:

  1. Náhodně jsem narazil na březnové vyjádření investora Jima Rogerse na téma Bear Stearns, kde uvádí toto:
    http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com...

    \"In 1966, the entire Japanese financial community went bankrupt. Every broker in Japan was in bankruptcy. Japan came out of that and became one of the great powerhouses of the world.

    In 1907, everbody on Wall Street was bankrupt. Everybody was bankrupt in 1907. America recovered from that and had a very nice future. Are you telling me that we\'re never going to have bankruptcies in the financial community again?\"

    -----

    To by stálo za to to prověřit.

    OdpovědětVymazat
  2. Omlouvám se, že tu furt otravuji :), ale velmi se mi líbí, co říká Allan Meltzer:
    http://open.salon.com...p?cid=21645

    JEFFREY BROWN: Well, flesh that out a bit. Is it that we are not in a crisis? Or is it that government intervention of this kind is not the right answer?

    ALLAN MELTZER: Well, I\'ve listened to governments tell me for 40 years that there was a crisis and the world was going to fall apart if we didn\'t do this or that. But there have been a few cases where they weren\'t able to do that.

    One was the commercial paper crisis in 1970. There have been several others. The world did not fall apart. Last week, we had Lehman Brothers went into bankruptcy. Within three days, most of the assets were sold.

    We had AIG turn down three offers to buy the company because they thought they would get a better deal from the government. It turned out they didn\'t get the better deal from the government. Now the stockholders suddenly woke up and said -- the major stockholders said, \"We\'d like to buy the company.\"

    Well, that\'s what I think we need to do. We need to get the government\'s hand out of this, and let\'s see whether we can\'t get a market solution.

    The market people caused this problem. They ought to be the ones that pay the cost of having it cleaned up.

    (...)

    ALLAN MELTZER: Yes. I don\'t want to join a debate about different ways of picking the public\'s pocket. I think, if they\'re going to do something -- and I don\'t think that we really need to do anything. I\'ve heard these stories over and over for 40 years. You know, maybe there will be a crisis.

    But despite all the talk, Main Street is not doing so badly. And the fact is that they\'ve been predicting disaster since January. It hasn\'t happened.

    And if they\'re going to do something, then what they ought to do is make loans, which the financial institutions have to repay with interest. And if you think -- that\'s an idea which the Chileans have used in a bigger crisis than this for them in 1982, and it worked for them.

    People paid back the loans. They weren\'t allowed to pay dividends until they repaid the loans. They weren\'t allowed to take bonuses until they repaid the loans. I think that\'s the way -- if we\'re going to do this, then that\'s the way we should do it.

    OdpovědětVymazat
  3. Tak s temi levnejsimi najmy na dolnim Manhattanu fakt nevim... Nejvyhodnejsi je predelat kancly na male byty a pronajmout pokoj tak za $2000 na mesic. Napriklad prumerna hledaci doba dvoupokojoveho bytu na Upper West Side je okolo 2 let a to uz po te co je prislibena pujcka ve vysi aspon 2-3 millionu dolaru. Jo, jo - lidi se nam tu hrnou ale Manhattan se nenafukuje ...

    OdpovědětVymazat
  4. A ještě si přisadím:

    1) Ken Rogoff:

    \" Any liquidity crisis is caused by the promise of a government bailout. Ken said that his many friends in investment banking said that there is plenty of money to invest in financial services, but right now it is \"sitting on the sidelines.\" Why? Because the financial services industry does not want to pay the terms required to get that money back in circulation (e.g., give up equity). As he put it, why do business with Warren Buffett who will negotiate a tough deal, if you believe that the government will ride in soon with cheaper cash?

    Ken also talked about the need to shrink the financial services sector. He thinks it is good that the investment banking houses are failing and many people on Wall Street are losing their jobs because, in his view, we have an oversupply in that sector and our economy just can\'t support it.\"

    http://www.marginalrevolution.com...

    2) Arnold Kling:
    http://pajamasmedia.com...-bailout/

    \"However, the market could be clogged because the prospects for a bailout are destroying the motivation to sell mortgage securities. If you sell this week and take a big loss, you will look pretty stupid if there is a bailout next week where comparable securities fetch much higher prices.
    It could be that a Congressional rejection of the bailout proposal, rather than clogging the markets, will unclog them. If Congress goes home having sent financial institutions a clear signal that there will be no bailout of any kind, then sellers will bring their securities to market, and we will find out what the market thinks they are worth.\"

    OdpovědětVymazat